Reds star Elly De La Cruz a challenge for fantasy baseball owners

Elly De La Cruz crushes a 470-foot home run0:25

Bryan De La Cruz lines an RBI single in the 1st0:17

Is Oneil Cruz Going to Outshine Elly De La Cruz in Home Runs?

Do you recall those books called Choose Your Own Adventure? Isn’t it like reading one of them when you’re creating a fantasy team?

Your journey is impacted by every choice you make, and no matter what adventure you select, something will inevitably come up to try and derail you: cold streaks, injuries, aging veterans, and possibilities that don’t live up to the promise.

The draft is where your journey starts, and every choice you make counts.

Elly De La Cruz is among the most controversial and intriguing names on the market. The Reds shortstop scored 67 runs, drove in 44 runs, and hit 13 home runs in 98 games the previous season.

Elly De La Cruz, a third baseman with the Reds, hits a single in the opening inning of a spring training game against the Cubs.USA TODAY Sports’ Matt Kartozian

Aside from that, he had more than 200 fewer plate appearances than everyone above him, save for Esteury Ruiz, and his 35 stolen bases ranked tenth in the majors.

His stock is skyrocketing, and those figures combined with an improved Reds lineup force fantasy managers to make difficult decisions in drafts (provided they aren’t in a dynasty league where he is already rostered or a keeper league where players are awarded round values).

This is where your journey starts. Select your journey:

1. Based on 98 big league games, Fantasy Alarm projects De La Cruz’s current average draft position to be 29.58.

2. Transfer De La Cruz’s alluring abilities and assemble a well-rounded team with more seasoned players.

3. Enter the haunted house and make an effort to speak with Old Man Rutherford’s ghost.

Given De La Cruz’s potential, your initial reaction might be to seize adventure number one. That’s reasonable, but to assist you in choosing, let’s examine what the 22-year-old actually revealed to us during the 2023 campaign.

De La Cruz had an.887 OPS, four home runs, 16 RBIs, 28 runs, 16 stolen bases, and a.325 average in his first 30 games. During that period, he tied for the league lead in runs scored and led the majors in stolen bases.

He had the 18th-best OPS and the 11th-highest average. In addition, he had the greatest ground ball rate, the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate, the seventh-worst walk percentage, and the third-highest strikeout rate.

Fantasy managers were thrust into an entirely new experience (certainly not all awful, but definitely not all terrific) during the All-Star break. In the second half, De La Cruz hit.191, with nine home runs, 28 RBIs, 39 runs, 19 stolen bases, and an OPS of.627.

In 292 plate appearances, he also struck out 105 times (36 percent). After the break, he had the 13th-highest ground ball rate, the fifth-lowest OBP, the sixth-lowest OPS, the third-lowest batting average, and the second-worst strikeout rate.

It’s difficult to dismiss De La Cruz’s other stats, even while it’s difficult to ignore the thrilling figures (home runs, runs scored, and stolen bases). For example, the batting average of.235, the strikeout rate of 33.7 percent, or the groundball rate of 53.9 percent. Although his greatest exit velocity was the third highest, his launch angle and barrel rate were not even close to the top.

What about his batting average of.199 at home or.184 against southpaws? As you may recall, he batted.238 in July and.198 in August. Yes, he did steal 12 bases in the last month of the season, but over that same time he only managed five extra-base hits and hit.202.

In 98 games last season, De La Cruz hit 13 home runs, drove in 44 runs and scored 67.AP

Can he make enough adjustments to turn any of those numbers around? If not, you’re looking at a long season.

This is why selecting De La Cruz as a top-30 player is a massive gamble. Don’t get me wrong, his ceiling is enormous — he has all the tools to be the league-winner fantasy managers dream of having on their team. On the other hand, he also has the tools (mainly a shovel) to bury your team because his floor feels like a potential bottomless pit.

That’s a scary adventure to choose, especially when there are other, more established options. You might think this is Roto Rage opting for the “safer” adventure, because Roto Rage is adverse to taking risks. That is wildly incorrect. This is Roto Rage choosing the “smarter” adventure because immense talent based on a small sample size isn’t enough to win a fantasy title.

Choose your adventure wisely, my friends.

Guide to Insanity

Draft preview special

Part 2 of 5

Roto Rage Jarad Wilk ranks middle infielders. Next week: corner infielders.

Second basemen

1. Mookie Betts, LAD

2. Marcus Semien, Tex

3. Ozzie Albies, Atl

4. Matt McLain, Cin

5. Jose Altuve, Hou

6. Jazz Chisholm, Mia

7. Nico Hoerner, ChC

8. Gleyber Torres, NYY

9. Spencer Steer, Cin

10. Andres Gimenez, Cle

11. Nolan Gorman, StL

12. Zack Gelof, Oak

13. Thairo Estrada, SF

14. Ketel Marte, Ari

15. Edouard Julien, Min

16. Bryson Stott, Phi

17. Ha-Seong Kim, SD

18. Jordan Westburg, Bal

19. Christopher Morel, ChC

20. Jonathan India, Cin

21. Tommy Edman, StL

22. Jorge Polanco, Sea

23. Luis Arraez, Mia

24. Whit Merrifield, Phi

25. Amed Rosario, TB

26. Ryan McMahon, Col

27. Justin Turner, Tor

28. Brice Turang, Mil

29. Brandon Drury, LAA

30. Jeff McNeil, NYM

31. Luis Rengifo, LAA

32. Jake Cronenworth, SD

33. Jared Triolo, Pit

34. Isaac Paredes, TB

35. Brandon Lowe, TB

36. Michael Massey, KC

37. Miguel Vargas, LAD

38. Josh Rojas, Sea

39. Geraldo Perdomo, Ari

40. Brendan Rodgers, Col

41. Jon Berti, Mia

42. Elvis Andrus, FA

43. Willi Castro, Min

44. Luis Garcia, Was

45. Kike Hernandez, LAD

46. Adam Frazier, KC

47. Jordan Diaz, Oak

48. Davis Schneider, Tor

49. Mauricio Dubon, Hou

50. Zach McKinstry, Det

51. Luis Urias, Sea

52. Ramon Urias, Bal

53. Kolten Wong, Bal

54. Gavin Lux, LAD

55. Nicky Lopez, CWS

Shortstops

1. Bobby Witt Jr., KC

2. Trea Turner, Phi

3. Mookie Betts, LAD

4. Corey Seager, Tex

5. Francisco Lindor, NYM

6. Bo Bichette, Tor

7. Gunnar Henderson, Bal

8. Elly De La Cruz, Cin

9. Anthony Volpe, NYY

10. Matt McLain, Cin

11. Nico Hoerner, ChC

12. Dansby Swanson, ChC

13. Oneil Cruz, Pit

14. Xander Bogaerts, SD

15. Willy Adames, Mil

16. CJ Abrams, Was

17. Ha-Seong Kim, SD

18. Tommy Edman, StL

19. Vaughn Grissom, Bos

20. Ezequiel Tovar, Col

21. Thairo Estrada, SF

22. Amed Rosario, TB

23. Jeremy Pena, Hou

24. Maikel Garcia, KC

25. Carlos Correa, Min

26. Trevor Story, Bos

27. Jordan Lawlar, Ari

28. J.P. Crawford, Sea

29. Luis Rengifo, LAA

30. Javier Baez, Det

31. Brice Turang, Mil

32. Tim Anderson, Mia

33. Chris Taylor, LAD

34. Geraldo Perdomo, Ari

35. Masyn Winn, StL

36. Jon Berti, Mia

37. Marco Luciano, SF

38. Brayan Rocchio, Cle

39. Zach Neto, LAA

40. Kike Hernandez, LAD

41. Brandon Crawford, StL

42. Elvis Andrus, FA

43. Orlando Arcia, Atl

44. Zach McKinstry, Det

45. Nicky Lopez, CWS

46. Jorge Mateo, Bal

47. Ezequiel Duran, Tex

48. Kyle Farmer, Min

49. Joey Wendle, NYM

50. Miguel Rojas, LAD

51. Taylor Walls, TB

52. Santiago Espinal, Tor

53. Garrett Hampson, KC

54. Paul DeJong, CWS

55. Edmundo Sosa, Phi