Cincinnati Reds 2024 outlook: Phenom Elly De La Cruz will be the key to a run in NL Central
The Cincinnati Reds have just once advanced to the postseason in the last ten years, and that was in 2020, when the Atlanta Braves easily defeated them in the Wild Card round. There have been numerous fourth- and fifth-place results in the NL Central over that ten years.
There is optimism that the 2024 season will be different from previous ones. The Reds finished with an 82-80 record, narrowly missing a wild-card place by two games. They have added some players for the upcoming season, and they will have starlet Elly De La Cruz for the entire year.
Cincinnati’s predicted victory total is in line with both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, but the Reds might be in a good position to surprise some people this season. Let’s examine some of the offseason decisions the team made, assess their prospects for 2024, and identify one player to watch this coming season.
Cincinnati Reds additions and subtractions
Credit: Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
After concluding with a 71-91 record and placing in the bottom half of the division the previous season, the St. Louis Cardinals are predicted to finish atop the NL Central this season. It’s difficult to argue with the franchise’s history. However, if you contrast the Redbirds’ and Redlegs’ offseasons, they are rather similar.
We have been tallying the WAR that the team is losing from last year’s squad through free agency, trades, waiver claims, etc. during our team preview series, and then comparing that total with what is anticipated from each team’s new acquisitions. The iconic Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds, who finished the season with zero wins, will not be available. Actually, very few of the players that were leaving had any positive WAR totals. Relievers Derek Law (0.3) and Chasen Shreve (0.2) were the only ones who did.
To provide experience to this youthful Reds lineup, the team has signed minor-league contracts with Tony Kemp (0.9), Frankie Montas (2.1), and Jeimer Candelario (1.1). The squad also gains a dependable fifth starter in Nick Martinez (1.2). The Reds’ projected WAR overall is +7.1 more than that of the group that left the team.
The Cardinals were at +7.4 in contrast, although they also have an 11-game deficit from the Reds’ final season standings before they begin. The Reds have more upside than St. Louis, who added some good players and could see some growth from their young players as well as successful seasons from their veterans.
Cincinnati Reds 2024 outlook
Baseball Prospectus has the Cincinnati Reds at 78.4-83.6, while FanGraphs projects them at 79-83 above. The bad news is that. The good news is that the Reds are only expected to trail the Cardinals by four games at full strength, the Chicago Cubs by two, the Milwaukee Brewers by one, and St. Louis by six at half strength. Though their expected position is officially fourth, they’re closer to the top of the division than the bottom in either scenario.
Although they have advanced significantly over time, projection systems still have flaws. They should give you a decent indication of what’s to come. These predictions should inspire hope in Reds fans. Given their short track records, it’s still difficult to predict exactly how well TJ Friedl, Elly, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, and Spencer Steer will perform in 2024. A team with as much experience as St. Louis’ is expected to finish first because of their veteran-studded roster.
The one concerning aspect of this Reds team—yes, they play in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks—is that every member of their projected pitching staff, relievers included, is predicted to have an ERA starting at less than four. Closer Alexis Díaz has a 4.10 against the opposition, while the expected number one starter, Hunter Greene, is at 4.27. Positively, there are also no ERAs that start with the number five.
This club is rife with mashers when it comes to offensive capabilities. Eleven of the 13 projected bats on the squad are expected to finish with more than ten home homers. The Atlanta Braves have 10 of thirteen, and last season they had an all-time offensive output. Higher totals are also anticipated for Atlanta’s big sluggers. The key takeaway from this is that the Reds can beat you in a number of ways due to their depth in the lineup, with six out of 13 players expected to steal more than ten balls.
It’s understandable why Cincinnati is the popular “bold prediction” to win the division in the upcoming weeks. They may easily pass the rest of the Central and win their first championship since 2012 if they were to have some good fortune on their side or put up another outstanding showing.
Cincinnati Reds player to watch in 2024
Elly De La Cruz, who made an impact in his first 21 games in June, is undoubtedly the obvious choice.307 with nine stolen bases, two triples, a.358 OBP, three home runs, and twenty-one runs scored. On one trip to the plate, he was almost hitting balls out of the park, and the next, he was stealing home. He’s electric. That’s why he isn’t the solution in this situation. It would be impossible to look away from Elly’s antics.
Alternatively, pay attention to Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He’s not just really skilled at baseball, but his entire last name won’t fit on the back of the new jerseys. The 24-year-old hit.270 with a.328 OBP and 13 home runs in 63 games during his previous season with Cincinnati. Additionally, he blasted 20 home runs in 67 Triple-A games. The man is quite attractive.
When he made contact with the ball last season, he also demonstrated a talent for hard hits with a 48.4% hard-hit rate. That would have put him in a tie for No. 38 in all of baseball and been the exact same pace as Giancarlo Stanton had he received enough plate appearances. When you consider that he launched at an angle of 18.6 degrees, he appears to be a breakout prospect for the Reds.
It’s important to monitor the comments made about him within the Reds camp, as he may not always have a slot available for regular playing time. Encarnacion-Strand would be most likely to settle in the positions of Marte at third, Candelario at first, and Jonathan India at DH. Even if he might not be a regular right away for the Reds, his power figures will eventually free up a slot.